INTRODUCTION

Ⅰ THE ANTI-NATURALISTIC DOCTRINES OF HISTORICISM

1 Generalization

2 Experiment

3 Novelty

4 Complexity

5 Inexactitude of Prediction

6 Objectivity and Valuation

7 Holism

8 Intuitive Understanding

9 Quantitative Methods

10 Essentialism versus Nominalism

Ⅱ THE PRO-NATURALISTIC DOCTRINES OF HISTORICISM

11 Comparison with Astronomy．Long-Term Forecasts and Large-Scale Forecasts

12 The Observational Basis

13 Social Dynamics

14 Historical Laws

15 Historical Prophecy versus Social Engineering

16 The Theory of Historical Development

17 Interpreting versus Planning Social Change

18 Conclusion of the Analysis

Ⅲ CRITICISM OF THE ANTINATURALISTIC DOCTRINES

19 Practical Aims of this Criticism

20 The Technological Approach to Sociology

21 Piecemeal versus Utopian Engineering

22 The Unholy Alliance with Utopianism

23 Criticism of Holism

24 The Holistic Theory of Social Experiments

25 The Variability of Experimental Conditions

26 Are Generalizations Confined to Periods？

Ⅳ CRITICISM OF THE PRONATURALISTIC DOCTRINES

27 Is there a Law of Evolution？Lawn and Trends

28 The Method of Reduction．Causal Explanation．Prediction and Prophecy

29 The Unity of Method

30 Theoretical and Historical Sciences

31 Situational Logic in History．Historical Interpretation

32 The Institutional Theory of Progress

33 Conclusion

INDEX