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内容简介
Chapter 1: Overview
Cause and Effect: How Does It Work?
Measuring the Status Quo: What Is the State of the World?
Prediction: What Will Happen?
Reasons for Commissioning Special Studies
Conclusion
References
PART I: CAUSE AND EFFECT
Chapter 2: Experiments
Historical Examples
Features of the Comparative Experiment
What the Comparative Experiment Is Not
Strengthening Controlled Experiments
Merits of the Experimental Method
Social, Economic, and Medical Experimentation
Weaknesses of Experiments
Quality Checklist
Policy Implications
Conclusion
References
Further Reading
Chapter 3: Special Considerations for Economic Experiments
The Economist’s View of Experiments
Micro-Experiments
Macro-Experiments
Production Experiments
Reorganization Experiments
Problems of Execution and Inference
Conclusion
References
Chapter 4: Comparative Observational Studies
Example: Preschool Program Evaluation
Features of Observational Studies
What the Observational Study Is Not
Strengthening Observational Studies
Merits of Observational Studies
Weaknesses of Observational Studies
Quality Checklist
Policy Implications
Conclusion
References
Further Reading
PART II: MEASURING THE STATUS QUO
Chapter 5: Sample Surveys
Examples
Features of the Sample Survey
What the Sample Survey Is Not
Strengthening Sample Surveys
Merits of Sample Surveys
Weaknesses of Sample Surveys
Quality Checklist
Policy Implications
Conclusion
References
Further Reading
Chapter 6: Longitudinal and Panel Studies
Examples
Merits of Longitudinal Studies
Weaknesses of Longitudinal Studies
Understanding Rare Events
Refreshing and Adjusting Panels
Pitfalls
Policy Implications and Conclusion
References
Chapter 7: Case Studies
Examples
Features of the Case Study
What the Case Study Is Not
Strengthening Case Studies
Merits and Weaknesses of Case Studies
Quality Checklist
Policy Implications
Conclusion
References
Further Reading
Chapter 8: Management Records
Examples
Features of a Management Records Study
Management Information Systems
Strengthening Management Records Studies
Merits of Management Records Studies
Weaknesses of Management Records Studies
Quality Checklist
Policy Implications
Conclusion
References
Further Reading
Chapter 9: Official Statistics
Guides to Data
Federal Statistical Agencies
Additional Sources
Interpretation
The Information Industry
Reference
Further Reading
Chapter 10: The Explosion in Computer-Assisted Library Searches
How a Search Works
Types of Data Bases
Data Bases at One University
Conclusion
PART III: PREDICTING THE FUTURE
Chapter 11: Simulation
Examples
Features of Simulation
What Simulation Is Not
Strengthening Simulation
Merits of Simulation
Weaknesses of Simulation
Quality Checklist
Policy Implications
Conclusion
References
Further Reading
Chapter 12: Forecasting
Examples
Features of Forecasts
What Forecasting Is Not
Strengthening Forecasts
Merits of Forecasts
Weaknesses of Forecasts
Quality Checklist
Policy Implications
Conclusion
References
Further Reading
Chapter 13: Mathematical Modeling
Model of a Panel of Experts
Model of the Learning Process
Modeling Land Availability and Fertility in Brazil
References
Further Reading
Chapter 14: Introspection and Advice
Examples
Features on Introspection and Advice
What Introspection and Advice Are Not
Strengthening Introspection and Advice
Merits of Introspection and Advice
Weaknesses of Introspection and Advice
Quality Checklist
Policy Implications
Conclusion
References
Further Reading
PART IV: SPECIAL ISSUES
Chapter 15: Have Things Gone Away?
Checking for Magnitude
Smoothness
Modeling
Warning Signals
Protection Against Hoaxes and Frauds
References
Further Reading
Chapter 16: Privacy and Confidentiality
Reference
Further Reading
Chapter 17: Summary of General Questions and Issues
Reference
Chapter 18: Strengthening the System
The Role of the Public
Commissioning Policy Research
Supplying Information for Policy
Using Policy Research
What the Future Should Hold
References
Further Reading
Index
